Interesting trends are starting to emerge out of the real estate market in the Bay Area. Monitoring the week-over-week trends gives us some insights into supply and demand on the residential side.
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Let’s dive in.
Trend 1: Prices still staying flat
Median prices have stayed flat as supply has come down in anticipation of demand falling. There is still activity out there in the market for new buyers as I hear from my clients and from the market which is propping up prices. We are seeing slight weakness in the most recent week below the trendline.
Trend 2: Weekly Changes Are Big
We are entering a market cycle where we see lots of activity – into the spring and summer. More buyers come onto the markets and sellers list into the new year. We see this especially after tax day as buyers understand their liquidity.
Right now, the trajectory is projected below. My gut tells me it will be flatter, and that things may really change with a second wave in autumn of the virus. But we can never predict, only react to the current reality.
Trend 3: Some stalling in the market from forward indicators
We are seeing some stalling in the market from deals that were not already in process. Looking at listings accepting offers, a forward indicator, we are seeing softening of demand. It is an outlier even looking at seasonality of a usually soft Q1.
Trend 4: Sellers have already tightened up
Sellers have already withdraw lots of inventory. It was immediate and the aftermath was more gradual. We saw a huge outflow of listings in mid-March (right when the market took a dive). Given that correlation, I think the stock market may be a good indicator of listings and available supply. This suggests that sellers have some holding power. It also means properties on the market now may not.
